Rasmussen Poll: Trump a Shoo-in Over Biden, Harris if Election Were Now


Former President Donald Trump would be a shoo-in over President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris if the next election were held now, with 1 in 5 Democrats saying they would vote for Trump today, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,000 likely U.S. voters released Thursday.

Trump in head-to-head matchups with Biden or Harris would win by double-digit margins; 51-41 percent over Biden and 52-39 percent over Harris.

Voters are divided on whether Trump should run again in 2024, with 48 percent saying it would be a good idea and 44 percent saying it would be a bad idea.

The poll also found:

  • 75 percent of Democrat voters say they would vote to elect Biden again while 84 percent of Republican voters say they would back Trump
  • Among unaffiliated voters, Trump would get 51 percent against either Biden or Harris, although 14 percent of unaffiliated voters say they would prefer another candidate
  • 49 percent of voters 65 and older say it’s a bad idea for Trump to consider a 2024 presidential run
  • 52 percent rate Biden’s handling of immigration issues as poor and his ratings on immigration have worsened since April, when 50 percent of voters rated his handling of immigration as poor
  • 70 percent of voters say the current situation with migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border is a crisis, up from 66 percent in May
  • 54 percent say America’s current immigration problems are being caused more by the policies Biden has in place since taking office; 37 percent blame Trump’s policies
  • Voters think Trump’s ”aggressive, controversial” style ”wasn’t so bad” by a 52-44 percent margin.

Biden’s approval numbers have dipped amid the surge of illegal immigrants at the southern border and a chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal. Trump has been hinting at a 2024 run and his top advisers have suggested he is locked in.   

The survey was conducted Sept. 21-22. The margin of error is +/-3 percentage points.